The top adviser to the Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, talked
through the resolution with the US and French teams, while the Israeli
Foreign Ministry had its man alongside John Bolton at the UN building
in New York.
The only thing preventing Israeli officials from jumping up and down
with glee, according Aluf Benn of the daily Haaretz newspaper, was the
fear that “demonstrated Israeli enthusiasm for the draft could
influence support among Security Council members, who could demand a
change in wording that may adversely affect Israel.” So no celebration
parties till the resolution is passed.
Instead, in a cynical ploy familiar from previous negotiating
processes, Israel submitted to the US a list of requests for
amendments to the resolution. When Israel agrees to forgo these
amendments, it will, of course, be able to take credit for its
flexibility and desire to compromise; Lebanon and Hizbullah, on the
other hand, will be cast as villains, rejecting international
peace-making efforts.
The reason for Israel’s barely concealed pleasure is that Hizbullah
now faces an international diplomatic and public relations assault in
place of the unsuccessful Israeli military one. Israel, and the United
States, are trying to set a series of traps for Hizbullah -- and
Lebanon too -- that will justify Israel’s reoccupation of south
Lebanon, the further ethnic cleansing of the country, and a widening
of the war to include Iran, and possibly Syria.
The clues were not hard to decode. The US Secretary of State,
Condoleezza Rice, characterised the aim of the resolution as
clarifying who is acting in good faith. “We're going to know who
really did want to stop the violence and who didn't,” she said. Or, in
other words, we are going to be able to blame Hizbullah for the
hostilities because we have offered them terms of surrender we know
they will never agree to.
The main sticking point for Hizbullah is to be found in the
resolution’s requirement that it must stop fighting and begin a
process of disarmament at a time when Israeli forces are still
occupying Lebanese territory and when there may be a lengthy, if not
interminable, wait for their replacement by international
peacekeepers. Not only that, but the resolution allows Israel to
continue its military operations for defensive purposes: Hizbullah
only has to look to Gaza or the West Bank to see what Israel is likely
to consider falling under the rubric of “defensive”.
Hizbullah has been stockpiling weapons since Israel’s withdrawal in
May 2000 precisely to create a “balance of deterrence”, to make Israel
more cautious about sating its demonstrated appetite for occupying its
neighbours’ lands, particularly when the neighbour is a small country
like Lebanon without a proper army and divided into many sectarian
groups, some of which, for a price, may be willing to collaborate with
Israel.
This time, however, as Israeli troops struggle back towards the Litani
River and their initial goal of creating a “buffer zone” similar to
the one they held on to for nearly two decades, the Lebanese are
rallying behind Hizbullah, convinced that the Shiite militia is their
only protection against Western machinations for a “new Middle East”.
Israel and Washington, however, may hope that, given time, they can
break that national solidarity by provoking a civil war in Lebanon to
deplete local energies, similar to Israel’s attempts at engineering
feuds between Hamas and Fatah in the occupied Palestinian territories.
Certainly, it is difficult to make sense otherwise of Israel’s bombing
for the first time of Christian neighbourhoods in Beirut and what
looks like the intended ethnic cleansing of Sunni Muslims from Sidon,
which was leafletted by Israeli war planes at the weekend.
On the US-Israeli view, a nation of refugees living in an open-air
prison cut off from the outside world and deprived of food and aid --
a more ambitious version of the Gaza model -- may eventually be
persuaded to take their wrath out on their Shiite defenders.
Hizbullah understands that the proposal to bring in a force of
international peacekeepers is another trap. Either the foreign troops
will never arrive, because on these Israeli-imposed terms there can be
no ceasefire, or, if they do arrive, they will quickly become a proxy
occupation army. Israel will have its new South Lebanon Army, supplied
direct this time from the UN and subsidised by the West. If Hizbullah
fights, it will be killing foreign peacekeepers not Israeli soldiers.
But Israel knows the international force is almost certainly a
non-starter, which seems to be the main reason it has now, belatedly,
become so enthusiastic for it. Senior Israeli government officials
were saying as much in the Hebrew-language media on Sunday.
Israel’s Justice Minister, the increasingly hawkish Haim Ramon, summed
up the view from Tel Aviv: “Even if it is passed, it is doubtful that
Hezbollah will honor the resolution and halt its fire. Therefore we
have to continue fighting, continue hitting anyone we can hit in
Hezbollah, and I assume that as long as that goes on, Israel's
standing, diplomatically and militarily, will improve.”
Israel hopes it will be able to keep hitting Hizbullah harder -- at
less cost to its troops and civilians, and with improved diplomatic
standing -- because in the next phase, after the resolution is passed,
the Shiite militia will find that one arm has been tied, figuratively
speaking, behind its back.
Not only will Washington and Israel blame Hizbullah for refusing to
agree to the ceasefire but they will seek to use any retaliation
against Israeli “defensive” aggression -- including, presumably,
further invasion -- as a pretext for widening the war and dragging in
the real target of their belligerence: Iran.
This subterfuge was voiced at the weekend by Israel’s ambassador to
the UN, Dan Gillerman, who told the BBC that if Hizbullah fired at Tel
Aviv -- which it has threatened to do if Israel continues attacking
Beirut -- this would be tantamount to an “act of war” that could only
have been ordered by Iran. In other words, at some point soon Israel
may stop blaming Hizbullah and turn its fire -- defensively, of course
-- on Iran.
This linkage is being carefully prepared by Olmert. On Monday,
according to the Hebrew-language press, he told some 50 government
spokespeople what message to deliver to the foreign media: “Our enemy
is not Hezbollah, but Iran, which employs Hezbollah as its agent.”
According to Haaretz, he urged the spokespeople “not to be ashamed to
express emotion and appeal to feelings”.
So in the coming days, in the wake of this US-Israeli concoction of an
impossible peace, we are going to be hearing a lot more nonsense from
Israel and the White House about Iran’s role in supposedly initiating
and expanding this war, its desire to “wipe Israel off the map” and
the nuclear weapons it is developing so that it can achieve its aim.
The capture of two Israeli soldiers on 12 July will be decoupled from
Hizbullah’s domestic objectives. No one will talk of those soldiers as
bargaining chips in the prisoner swap Hizbullah has been demanding; or
as an attempt by Hizbullah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, to deflect
US-inspired political pressure on him to disarm his militia and leave
Lebanon defenceless to Israel’s long-planned invasion; or as a
populist show of solidarity by Hizbullah with the oppressed
Palestinians of Gaza.
Those real causes of hostilities will be ignored as more, mostly
Lebanese, civilians die, and Israel and the US expand the theatre of
war. Instead we will hear much of the rockets that are still landing
in northern Israel and how they have been supplied by Iran. The fact
that Hizbullah attacks followed rather precipitated Israel’s massive
bombardment of Lebanon will be forgotten. Rockets fired by Hizbullah
to stop Israeli aggression against Lebanon will be retold as an
Iranian-inspired war to destroy the Jewish state. The nuclear-armed
Goliath of Israel will, once again, be transformed into a plucky
little David. Or at least such is the Israeli and US scenario.
Jonathan Cook is a writer and journalist based in Nazareth, Israel.
His book, “Blood and Religion: The Unmasking of the Jewish and
Democratic State”, is published by Pluto Press. His website is
www.jkcook.net